ONGC’s 15-year gas projections (2010-11 to 2024-25): Company’s total firm gas production adds up to 249 BCM in 15 years

A recent exercise by ONGC on natural gas production projections for the period 2010-11 up to 2024-25 have been based on two-pronged projections: a firm profile and an indicative profile. While firm profiles are gas estimations from the E&P major’s ongoing development activities and marginal fields which are to be put on production, the indicative profiles include existing discoveries, where appraisals are yet to be made and firmed-up. The firm profile does not include production from ONGC’s JV fields.

  Some of the highlights of the 15-year (2010-11 to 2024-25) projection profile are as under:

• The E&P major’s total (firm profile) 15-year gas production is pegged at 249 BCM by 2024-25 (starting from 2010-11). This includes gas production from firm profiles as well as from marginal fields (excluding C-series gas). Out of 249 BCM, 215 BCM is going to come from firm profiles, while the remaining 34 BCM is going to come from marginal fields.
• The gas from the company’s marginal fields is expected to start from 2011-12 onwards.
• The gas production, which is pegged at 21 BCM for 2010-11, is going to peak in 2012-13 at 26.68 BCM. From then on, it is going to see a continuous decline and touch a low of 6.85 BCM in 2024-25.

The ONGC’s indicative gas production also comes, more or less, closer to its firm production profile. While its total 15-year firm production profile is estimated at 249 BCM in the next 15 years, the indicative gas production is estimated a little lower at 230 BCM.

• The fields which are taken into account while arriving at the indicative production figures are: Vashistha, S-1, G-1, C-24, B-12, KG-98/2, MN-OSN-2000/2 as well as MN-DWN-98/3, UD-1, YS-5/YS-6, Padmavati, Kanakdurga, G-4-5/G-4-6 and Khubal.
• The indicative gas production is expected to start from 2013-14 onwards when fields like Vashistha, S-1, G-1, C-24, B-12 and G-4-5 as well as G-4-6 are anticipated to commence their production. In its first year, the production is pegged at 7.5 MMSCMSD.
• The total indicative gas production, which is expected to start from 2013-14, is going to peak in 2021-22, at 71 MMSCMD. Then onwards it is going to decline gradually to 55 MMSCMD by 2024-25.
• Thus, the ONGC’s total gas production -- both firm as well as indicative -- adds up to 479 BCM by 2024-25.
• Fields like Vashistha, S-1, G-1, C-24 and B-12 which are presently considered as sources for indicative production are candidates for future firm productions sources. In the next long-term projection exercise, these fields are likely to be grouped with fields from where firm supplies are going to come from.
• The website carries here, year-wise and field-wise production projections from 2010-11 up to 2024-25.