Possibility of gas availability beyond projections for the period 2010-16: Petroleum ministry posits an optimistic outlook

The petroleum ministry already has in place projections for gas availability for the period 2010-16. After due deliberations with major PSU companies, on the possibility of gas availability beyond these projections, the petroleum ministry has arrived at the conclusion that the gas availability scenario is likely to improve substantially in the future on the back of enhanced availability of indigenous natural gas. The ministry, however, has not been able to provide definitive numbers and timeframe regarding such availability.

• The projections for the period 2010-16 suggest that the availability of natural gas is expected to increase from 142.81 MMSCMD in 2010-11 to 201.72 MMSCMD in 2015-16. A closer look at the figures indicate that a significant increase of around 9 MMSCMD of gas from ONGC's new marginal fields is likely to be witnessed in the year 2011-12. Another 28 MMSCMD of gas is expected to be added in the year 2012-13 due to increase in KG-D6 production from the present 60 MMSCMD to 80 MMSCMD and a further increase of 8 MMSCMD from Gujarat State Petroleum Corporation's (GSPC) Deendayal West block. However, no expectation of substantial increase in production is suggested beyond 2012-13 till 2015-16.
• Some of the major oil and gas companies have also given positive indications regarding future gas availability beyond the projections. ONGC has indicated that it's peak production is likely to reach 25 MMSCMD from each of its NELP fields in Krishna Godavari and Mahanadi basins. RIL has also suggested that it's peak production from the presently producing KG-D6 block, other projects in KG-D6, NEC 25 and CYD 5 is expected to add upto 115 MMSCMD by 2016. GSPC expects peak production of around 8 MMSCMD from its discoveries.
• On the flip side, the ministry has also commented that the contracted 234 NELP blocks and the 26 coal bed methane (CBM) blocks would not be able to produce gas in the same quantum as is produced by the prolific KG-D6 block.   
• To provide a more clear picture of the gas availability scenario in the country, the Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) has laid down technical benchmarks for finalizing the gas production profile.