Just when summer is approaching, the power ministry has sounded a warning bell on fuel shortage tripping electricity production, government sources said.
Power minister Sushilkumar Shinde has told thePrime Minister's Office that state-run Coal IndiaLtd's failure to meet supply targets may stop some 17,000 mw of generation capacity that are in the pipeline from being switched on.
Similarly, 5,593 mw of generation capacity that has been coming on stream through 2009-10 would produce less than half their rated capacity because they would not have enough coal.
That could mean a sweaty summer ahead. About 70% of power is generated by coal-fired plants in the country. These plants form the bulwark during summer months when hydel production declines as water levels in dams run low but power demand rises exponentially.
Shinde has told the PMO the government would have to scale down targets for ramping up generation capacity in 2011-12 as well as during the 12th Plan if coal supply is not augmented immediately.
Sources said coal shortage had increased since the growth in CIL's output did not match the "rapid" pace of generation capacity addition. The ministry reckoned some 52,000 mw of coal-fired capacity under execution would be in jeopardy unless coal production rose 20%. That may be a tall order for CIL or the coal ministry. The power ministry knows it too well. An internal note prepared by the ministry partly blames the environment ministry's "Go, No-Go" policy for blocking development of coal mines.
The note puts the present shortage at 60 million tonnes that is expected to rise to 85 million tonnes in 2011-12. It says power stations would need 532 million tonnes to run at 90% of their capacity during 2011-12. Supplies from CIL, however, are estimated at 414 million tonnes.
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