Coal supply to power sector: Demand-supply mismatch likely during 2010-11 and 2011-12

A brief analysis of the Indian coal demand-supply scenario for the power sector reveals that production will fall well short of demand during the two fiscals of 2010-11 and 2011-12. While the domestic coal supply is estimated to lag behind demand by 52 million tonnes (MT) during 2010-11, the same gap is likely to widen to 103 MT, the next fiscal. Pertinently, the industry will demand around 440 MT of indigenous coal against the availability of 388 MT during the current fiscal, including 335 MT from Coal India Limited (CIL) sources and 32 MT and 21 MT, respectively, from Singereni Coalfields Limited (SCCL) and various captive coal blocks. Alongside, domestic coal production during 2011-12 is projected as 414 MT, while the industry would demand a quantity of 517 MT. During the fiscal, CIL is expected to supply 360 MT, while SCCL and captive coal mines would dispatch 32 MT and 22 MT, respectively.

In order to bridge the projected demand-supply gap, the power utilities are targeted to import 35 MT of coal during the current fiscal, in addition to 12 MT of coal that would be required to meet the fuel requirement of the power stations designed to run on imported coal. The requirement of imported-coal is expected to be higher during the next fiscal as 69 MT would be required to be ferried to India from other coal-rich countries so as to mitigate the shortage in domestic coal supplies. That apart, the imported-coal based power plants will necessitate 21 MT of coal import during 2011-12. However, the more-expensive option of coal imports will surely add to the worries of the power generating utilities, which are often found to be reluctant in effectuating these imports.