Mr Mookim's count shows the Indian power sector will be heavily reliant on coal for decades to come. At the same time, India's steel industry, also dependent on coal, is expected to treble its output within a decade.
But there is growing concern about where all the coal is going to come from. India has significant coal reserves suitable for power generation and boasts the world's biggest coal company - the government-owned Coal India Limited. But the expansion of the Indian economy has been so rapid, demand is outstripping domestic supply. There are similar worries about the nation's future supply of oil.
The government wants the economy to expand at 9 per cent a year to help lift millions of poor families out of poverty. But an energy supply crunch could compromise that goal.
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has formed a ministerial committee to tackle India's energy security. It is considering dipping into India's $277 billion in foreign exchange reserves to help state-owned firms buy coal, oil and uranium assets abroad. India has reportedly lost out to China on at least $12.5 billion of energy-related contracts in the past year.Another barometer of India's energy worries is the number of big Indian firms that have been snooping around Australia on the hunt for coal assets.
Last month, Indian newspapers reported that Gujarat-based industrial firm Adani Group was negotiating a $US 1 billion deal with Linc Energy to purchase Queensland coal tenements. Linc has confirmed it is in negotiations.Around the same time, Adani announced it had also been given the go-ahead, with another ''proponent'', to conduct a feasibility study to develop a coal-loading port facility at Dudgeon Point near Mackay.Adani, which owns and operates India's largest private port in Gujurat, said it had been looking to ''develop ports across India and the world''.
Coal India Limited is also on the prowl. In April, BusinessDay revealed that it was in negotiations with US miner Peabody to acquire a stake in coal assets including mines in Australia.
''We have been holding meetings with a number of companies and have zeroed in on five with whom we would enter into agreements to acquire stakes through equity contracts,'' CIL chairman and managing director Partha Bhattacharyya told the Indian Express last month. ''Of the five, two each are in Indonesia and Australia and one is in the United States. We intend to sign agreements with them within the next two months.''Mr Bhattacharyya's board has approved $A2 billion to spend on these acquisitions.
Coal India, based in the eastern city of Kolkata, produces nearly 80 per cent of India's coal. Last month the Indian government announced it would sell a 10 per cent stake in the company. The initial public offering, due to go to market in October, is expected to raise about $US2.7 billion.In a sign Coal India is gearing up for a big increase in coal imports, it will reportedly construct a major coal-loading port at Visakhapatnum on India's east coast.
Adani and CIL are not alone in the quest for Australian coal deals.A week ago Mumbai's Daily News and Analysis reported that steel maker Jindal Saw was negotiating to buy a stake of up to 50 per cent in the North Clermont Coal mine. The deal is reportedly worth $120 million.A few days earlier, there were reports that International Coal Venture Limited - a joint venture of major government-owned coal consumers - was unsuccessful with a $180 million bid for the Queensland government owned Stanwell mine.
India imports about 90 per cent of the coal it needs to make steel because its own reserves are too high in ash content. Australia is already a major supplier for this market but there are predictions Indian firms will have to import much more thermal coal from Australia if they are to meet their growing energy requirements.
This view gained credence in June when R. S. Sharma, the chairman of India's biggest power utility NTPC, revealed it was looking to buy stakes in Australian coal mines.Mr Sharma said there were lots of coal assets in New South Wales and Queensland and praised Australia's good port infrastructure.NTPC sources said a delegation from the company would soon make a lengthy study tour of Australia.
Analysts say Indian power and steel producers want to purchase coal mines, or forge joint ventures, in order to control supply and reduce exposure to price increases. They tend not to favour long-term supply contracts with other parties.''The Indian ethos is to have your supply tied up,'' says one Indian mining industry player.
Firms such as NTPC are being forced to find coal offshore because India is not able to boost supply from its domestic coal deposits quickly enough to meet demand.''We have significant reserves but they take a long time to get into production,'' says KPMG analyst, Arvind Mahajan.
''There is a need to re-examine the policies associated with exploration, development and production.''
India's coal reserves are concentrated in the poverty-stricken eastern states of Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh, where basic infrastructure is lacking. Each of these states is also battling a debilitating Maoist insurgency.''Companies face significant security and access issues to coal mines in these areas,'' Mr Mookhim wrote in a recent Credit Suisse report.
''Unless such bottlenecks are addressed, growth in domestic coal production could be difficult.''
Unwieldy government regulation and environmental restrictions are also hindering mine development.
Keith Orchison, the editor of the Powering Australia yearbook and former managing director of the Electricity Supply Association of Australia, says the need for India to pursue more coal supply from abroad is driven by its inability to operate the industry efficiently at home.''There are problems with environmental clearances for new projects and great difficulties in planning, let alone implementing, projects to build roads and railways to link prospective mines with markets,'' he says.
''India … still doesn't encourage commercial coal mining by the private sector. This malaise is now really being felt because India is falling behind its own government targets for power development.''Delhi-based analyst Amarjit Singh says the regulatory challenges, infrastructure bottlenecks and security risks are encouraging Indian firms to look elsewhere to augment supply.
''India does have a lot of coal theoretically,'' he says. ''But it's becoming more and more difficult to get clearance for mines.''
Indonesia's thermal coal mines have a comparative advantage over Australia's because they are nearer to India but Australia's reputation as a reliable supplier is attractive to Indian buyers."Australian mines might be more expensive but they are reliable,'' says Mr Singh.
''Australia's advantages are that the coal is good and the infrastructure is good.''Even so, Australia will face stiff competition from Indonesia - which has lower transport costs - and cheaper African suppliers like South Africa and Mozambique.
Mr Mahajan warns that Indian coal users are very price sensitive and that Australia may have to take steps to reduce logistics costs.So far the flurry of Indian interest in Australian mining assets has not resulted in many completed deals.But if the number of new power plants going up in India is any guide, it may not be long before that changes.